陆军武器装备综合集成体系的系统效能评估模型

陆军武器装备综合集成体系的系统效能评估是体系建设的的重要内容．给出了基于ADC方法研究的陆军武器装备综合集成体系的可用性和可信性定量评估模型，并结合应用示例评估了两种作战模式下某防空系统的作战能力和系统效能，通过评估结果的比较分析，验证了所建模型的有效性。     

消防监督工作效益论

从目前消防监督工作的投入和收益谈起，引入效益和边际效益理论，对进一步提升消防监督工作效益进行探讨分析。     

剪切变形对夹芯复合材料悬臂箱梁挠度的影响

为了分析剪切变形对夹芯复合材料悬臂箱梁挠度的影响,推导了夹芯复合材料薄壁箱梁的等效弯曲刚度和剪切刚度,将夹芯复合材料悬臂箱梁等效为具有等跨度等刚度的均质箱梁;利用初等梁理论得到了考虑剪切变形的夹芯复合材料悬臂箱梁的挠曲线方程;分析了剪切变形对夹芯复合材料薄壁箱梁挠度的影响,为复合材料薄壁箱梁的设计提供了理论参考.     

基于模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型

讨论了策略集清晰、支付值模糊的模糊双矩阵对策的一种求解方法，并以某型导弹混编群对抗ARM（反辐射导弹）及载机为案例进行研究，建立了基于模糊双矩阵对策的作战效能评估模型，研究结果对于双方资源分配，提高作战效能具有一定的军事应用价值。     

微分对策及其在军事领域的研究进展*

介绍了微分对策的产生背景及其半个多世纪以来的发展历程,简述了国内外微分对策理论发展的几个重要阶段及其标志性成果。全面地阐述了国内外关于微分对策在军事领域的应用研究状况,特别是美、俄等军事强国在微分对策军事应用研究方面的现状以及我国研究人员在该领域的主要研究成果。还进一步论述了微分对策在军事应用研究方面存在的问题,并对微分对策的发展前景做出了展望,指出了微分对策在军事应用领域中的研究热点、难点和主要发展方向。     

两级信息融合技术在柴油机故障诊断中的应用

针对传统神经网络在故障诊断中因测点信息多而导致的网络庞大、收敛困难等问题,引入集成神经网络,提高了融合诊断效率;同时引入基于D-S证据理论,这种决策融合方法解决了集成神经网络各个子网诊断结果不一致的问题。在应用于柴油机故障诊断时,首先对测取的正常和故障样本进行小波包AR谱分析,同时提取各个特征频带的能量分别作为集成神经网络对应子网的输入进行诊断,当其无法确定诊断结果时,再运用证据理论进行决策融合输出最终诊断结果。试验证明:基于集成神经网络和D-S证据理论的两级综合诊断模型提高了诊断的准确性和可靠性。     

Hybrid warfare through the lens of strategic theory

Hybrid warfare is the latest of the terms/concepts that have been used within the defence community in the last three decades to label contemporary warfare. It has been officially adopted in the core strategic documents of NATO, EU and national governments and has already inspired many articles, policy papers and books; however, this paper is unique in the sense that it analysis the hybrid warfare concept through the lens of strategic theory. It is argued that hybrid warfare does not merit the adoption as a doctrinal concept. Strategic theory instead, which lies at the nexus of all dimensions of warfare, provides a better viewpoint to approach contemporary warfare. It concludes that efforts should be directed towards exploring warfare under the light of eternal principles instead of proving the emergence of new types of warfare.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

采用3电平非均匀量化的脉冲编码策略

作为全数字发信机系统中广泛应用的一种脉冲编码技术,Delta-Sigma调制(Delta-Sigma Modulation, DSM)通过增加量化电平,能够实现调制性能的提升。但限于全数字发信机系统开关功放的具体结构,多电平DSM序列无法直接驱动后级功放电路。在传统3电平DSM基础上,通过引入面积等效原理和非均匀量化技术,提出了适用于开关功放的一种新的脉冲编码策略。理论分析和仿真结果表明,相比常规2电平DSM序列,采用该策略获得的调制脉冲序列具有更优的带内SNR和编码效率性能。     

相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法研究

针对相控阵雷达维修方案的选择问题,确定了维修方案的决策属性,并提出一种基于改进TOPSIS法的相控阵雷达维修方案优选方法。该方法通过引入Vague集来处理维修方案选择中存在的模糊信息,并采用博弈论综合赋权法来确定决策属性的综合权重。通过计算各备选方案与正、负理想方案的灰色关联度,得到了维修方案的灰色关联相对贴近度,进而实现对维修方案的排序和选择。最后,通过算例应用与分析,对提出的方法进行了验证。